Forecasting is both art and science, even more so when it’s a new product or service without a historical trend to leverage. Objectively evaluating your concept’s potential with input from consumers will help manage risk and understand upside opportunity. Failing to do so can lead to rapid failure.
Integrated Insight utilizes in-depth analytics and decades of experience to understand and predict customer demand and revenue potential.
Forecasting is both art and science, even more so when it’s a new product or service without a historical trend to leverage. Objectively evaluating your concept’s potential with input from consumers will help manage risk and understand upside opportunity. Failing to do so can lead to rapid failure.
Integrated Insight utilizes in-depth analytics and decades of experience to understand and predict customer demand and revenue potential.
Satisfries was Burger King’s attempt at offering customers healthier French fries. What Burger King failed to realize was that while consumers are quick to agree that they should eat healthier, exercise regularly, or be more environmentally conscious, their willingness to pay more than expected to do so was muted. Not only was it difficult to convey the difference between Satisfries and regular fries to customers on-the-go at a fast food outlet, the new fries were priced more than the regular fries and became a non-starter. The company discontinued Satisfries less than a year after they were introduced.
Conversely, the Walt Disney Company successfully launched a new cruise line with just one ship, extending their vacation opportunities beyond theme parks, resorts and vacation ownership. The company is now forecasted to be on track for a fleet of seven ships. Through extensive research, Disney was able to ascertain which factors would drive the success of the new cruise line and to accurately forecast demand and revenue, despite the risky move of targeting a new cruise audience (families with young children), forgoing having a casino onboard (a major revenue stream for most cruise lines) and pricing the product at a significant premium over other brands.
Demand and revenue forecasts are critical when:
– The risk of getting it wrong is substantial.
– You are entering new territory such as a new line of business, brand extension, etc. with which you are less comfortable.
– You embrace the notion that a scientific approach to product feasibility is better than a hope and a prayer.
– Combining existing data with objectively designed custom research allows us to accurately forecast potential demand and revenue. We rely less on what competitors have experienced, but don’t discount their results.
– We use what is known to calibrate overstatement that is often inherent in new product adoption. It starts with the insertion of specific questions in research and other known data points available internally or in the marketplace.
– We’ve walked in your shoes. With over 20 years of demand and revenue forecasting responsibility for Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, we have honed our models by comparing actual results to what was forecasted. Our approach to managing what consumers say they will do versus what they will actually do is steeped in science, not a gut feeling.
– We provide the “why” behind the forecast. A forecast is not just a number, but a way forward. Understanding what factors (audience segments, product attributes, market conditions, etc.) drive the forecast contributes to a successful launch and product sustainability.
– We quantify both risk and upside potential on a scaled basis, allowing you to decide your degree of comfort with the new product introduction. All new products carry risk. Our job is to put it in a box.
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